South Korea’s fertility rates surge by an astounding 8.7% in one month, yet the country’s population continues to shrink as political leadership struggles to reverse the demographic crisis through policy changes.
Key Takeaways
- South Korea recorded its biggest fertility spike in 34 years with births increasing 8.7% in April, though the fertility rate of 0.75 remains far below the 2.1 replacement level
- Despite the increase in births to 20,717 in April, deaths also rose, resulting in continued net population decline since late 2019
- Marriages have increased for 13 consecutive months, suggesting potential for sustained fertility improvement
- High taxation has been identified by Oxford University researchers as a significant factor in South Korea’s demographic decline
- New President Lee Jae-myung has proposed tax cuts and childbirth incentives to address what is considered a national emergency
A Surprising Reversal in Fertility Trends
South Korea has recorded its most significant increase in births in over three decades, with a remarkable 8.7% rise in April compared to the same month last year. This represents the largest year-on-year increase since 1991, with 20,717 babies born during the month. The fertility rate has slightly improved to 0.75 births per woman’s lifetime, though this remains dramatically below the 2.1 births needed for population replacement. Officials are cautiously optimistic about this unexpected development, particularly as marriages have been increasing steadily for 13 consecutive months, reaching 18,921 in April – a leading indicator that may forecast continued improvement in birth rates.
“Increase in marriages, a larger population of women in their 30s, and a more positive perception of having children all appear to be contributing to the recent rebound,” said Park Hyun-jung.
Demographic experts attribute this surprising uptick to several factors, including post-pandemic normalization of marriage patterns. Many young couples who delayed marriage during COVID-19 restrictions are now forming families. Additionally, there appears to be a subtle but meaningful shift in cultural attitudes toward family formation. Government policies encouraging childbirth may finally be showing results after years of ineffectiveness. The statistics agency also notes that a larger cohort of women in their early 30s – the prime childbearing years in Korea’s delayed-marriage culture – is contributing to the increased birth numbers.
Population Still in Decline Despite Birth Increase
Despite the encouraging rise in births, South Korea’s population continues to shrink as deaths outpace new arrivals. The country has experienced more deaths than births each quarter since late 2019, officially designating it as a “super-aged” society. This demographic imbalance represents an existential crisis for a nation that built its economic miracle on the productivity of a youthful workforce. The current trend, without dramatic intervention, projects a population drop from 51 million to potentially 38 million by 2070, with nearly half of citizens being elderly and dependent on social services.
“Given that marriages are a leading indicator of future births, it is very encouraging,” said Joo Hyung-hwan.
While marriages increased by 4.9% year-on-year in April, divorces decreased by 5.2%, potentially indicating more stable family formation. Officials are monitoring these trends closely to determine if they represent sustainable changes or merely temporary fluctuations. Some demographic experts warn that the current upswing might be influenced by a wave of “echo boomers” – children of the previous generation’s baby boom – and could reverse once this cohort ages out of their reproductive years.
— More Births (@MoreBirths) June 12, 2025
Political Leadership and Tax Policy: Critical Factors in Demographic Recovery
The population crisis has become a central political issue in South Korea, with leadership changes reflecting public dissatisfaction with handling the demographic emergency. Former President Yoon Suk-yeol had implemented measures including parental leave allowances and flexible work arrangements, but his effectiveness was undermined by political strife that ultimately led to his impeachment. New President Lee Jae-myung has promised a different approach, focusing on economic incentives including subsidized loans, tax deductions for parents, and affordable housing initiatives targeted at young families.
“The fertility rate in South Korea has fallen from 6 in 1950 to less than 1 in 2023, and the observed changes in fertility over time seem to align with the shifts in South Korea’s tax policies,” stated Joan Madia.
A groundbreaking Oxford University study has identified excessive taxation as a significant factor in South Korea’s demographic decline. Researchers found that high taxes reduce disposable income, leading young people to prioritize immediate personal gratification over family planning. The study revealed a direct correlation between tax increases and fertility declines throughout South Korea’s modern history. This conservative economic perspective suggests that government intervention through excessive taxation and spending may actually worsen the population crisis rather than solving it.
“Our research suggests that taxation can be an effective policy tool for influencing population dynamics and demographic trends and indicates that taxes targeting families and reducing child affordability are most likely to affect fertility,” stated Joan Madia.
South Korea’s demographic challenges mirror those facing other developed nations, particularly in East Asia and parts of Europe. The country’s approach to reversing population decline through targeted economic incentives, tax relief, and cultural shifts will be closely watched by nations grappling with similar crises. While the recent fertility spike offers a glimmer of hope, sustainable recovery will require continued political commitment and economic reforms that empower families to choose larger families without financial penalty. President Lee’s success or failure in addressing this existential threat will likely define his legacy in Korean history.
